Analysis of supply and demand situation of agricultural products in China in October 2023
Release time: 2023-10-17
玉米：The weather is better than usual in most major producing areas，The first frost is late in northeast China，The heat condition is good，It is beneficial to corn ripening and harvesting，Average maize yield in 2023/24 was higher than previously expected，This month it raised its yield forecast to 6,570 kg/ha，The total output is expected to be 288.23 million tons，An increase of 11.03 million tons over the previous year。Other data for the month are not adjusted。
大豆：In 2022/23, the average wholesale price of China's domestic soybean sales area was 5982 yuan per ton, down 7 percent from the previous year.6%, in the forecast range。No adjustments are made to the 2023/24 market supply and demand data this month。Soybeans in major domestic producing areas are about to enter the peak of centralized harvest and listing。Affected by rainfall at the beginning of harvest, the harvest progress in northeast producing areas was slightly slow, the quality was obviously better than that of last year, the particles were large, the protein and oil content were higher。As the weather improves, it is expected that the progress of new bean harvest will be accelerated, and the market purchase and sales tend to be active。In the international market, the progress of soybean harvest in the United States is basically normal, the pace of export sales is accelerating, the new season of soybeans in Brazil has begun to sow, the area and output are expected to be higher than last year, and the global soybean supply is generally loose。
棉花： This month, according to customs statistics, China's cotton imports in 2022/23 will be reduced by 20,000 tons to 1.43 million tons, and cotton ending stocks will be reduced to 7.11 million tons。Forecast this month, 2023/24 cotton production, import and export, consumption remained unchanged last month。The country's cotton has entered the centralized harvesting period, affected by the unfavorable weather during the planting period and growing period, the picking progress is slower than in previous years, and the recent weather conditions are generally favorable, and cotton harvesting is expected to accelerate。According to the data of the national cotton market monitoring system, as of October 7, the national new cotton picking progress 12.5%, down 3.5 percent, of which Xinjiang picking progress 10.6%, down 2.Seven percentage points。
Edible vegetable oil:本月，End of 2022/23 market year，Imports of rapeseed were higher than previously expected，China's edible vegetable oil production increased by 80,000 tons from the previous month's estimate to 30.58 million tons.Consumption was revised up 0.6 million tons from last month's estimate to 36.92 million tons，Mainly due to the increase in the number of migrant workers and food and beverage consumption over the previous year。This month forecast that in 2023/24, China's edible vegetable oil production of 30.25 million tons, imports of 8.43 million tons, unchanged from the previous month's forecast, consumption of 37.13 million tons, an increase of 520,000 tons from the previous month's forecast。Recently, the main producing areas of winter rape have entered the sowing stage. The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River mainly have good weather, and most areas have suitable soil moisture content, which is conducive to the sowing and emergence of rape。
食糖：No adjustments were made to the forecast this month。China's sugar production and marketing in 2022/23 came to an end. By the end of September, the country had produced 8.97 million tons of sugar, down 590,000 tons from the previous year.A total of 8.53 million tons of sugar were sold, 140,000 tons less than the previous year;The cumulative sugar selling rate is 95.1%, an increase of 4% over the previous year.Four percentage points。The annual average price of sugar is 6346 yuan per ton, within the forecast range, an increase of 640 yuan per ton over the previous year, an increase of 11.2%;The annual international average price for raw sugar is 22 per pound.5 cents, within the forecast range, up 3 cents per pound from last year.6 cents, up 19.0%。
The first sugar factory in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang was started on September 17 and 26 respectively, and as of October 10, a total of 21 sugar factories opened and produced, and the overall normal speed was faster at the beginning of 2023/24 production。The sugarcane growth in Guangxi and Yunnan producing areas is good, and the amount of sugarcane extracted is expected to increase。Overall, the national sugar production in the New Year is expected to recover growth。
Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs）
